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Australian Government - GST Distribution Review

Appendix D: Alternative mining scenarios

The following Figures illustrate the effect on the relativities in the event that mining royalties do not grow as strongly as States have budgeted for over the forward estimates period. In the alternative scenarios presented it is assumed that actual mining royalties for Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales ‘flat-line’ at 2011-12 levels over the forward estimates period.

Figure D1 shows the effect on Western Australia’s relativity if all mining royalties were to stay at 2011-12 levels over the forward estimates period.1 In this Figure the relativities are shown on both an assessment year and application year basis. Figures D2, D3, and D4 show how the other States’ relativities would change under this same scenario. All of those Figures are presented on an assessment year basis only.2

Figure D1: Western Australia’s per capita relativity under alternative mining scenarios

Figure D1: Western Australia's per capita relativity under alternative mining scenarios

Note: For application year data, relativities after 2012-13 are estimates and not actual figures. For assessment year data, relativities after 2010-11 are estimates and not actual figures.
Source: Commonwealth Grants Commission and Secretariat calculations. Figures based on data available at 5 July 2012.

Figure D2: Per capita annual relativities for the four most populous States under alternative mining scenarios

Figure D2: Per capita annual relativities for the four most populous States under alternative mining scenarios

Source: Commonwealth Grants Commission and Secretariat calculations. Figures based on data available at 5 July 2012.

Figure D3: Per capita annual relativities for SA, Tasmania and the ACT under alternative mining scenarios

Figure D3: Per capita annual relativities for SA, Tasmania and the ACT under alternative mining scenarios

Source: Commonwealth Grants Commission and Secretariat calculations. Figures based on data available at 5 July 2012.

Figure D4: Per capita annual relativities for the Northern Territory under alternative mining scenarios

Figure D4: Per capita annual relativities for the Northern Territory under alternative mining scenarios

Source: Commonwealth Grants Commission and Secretariat calculations. Figures based on data available at 5 July 2012.


1 Estimates for the forward estimates period are based on data from the Secretariat’s model agreed with Heads of Treasuries.

2 See Glossary for definitions of application year and assessment year.